Should I switch to electric?

Method
Back to the simulator

Method

How the simulator calculates. Every assumption is numbered and sourced; the A1, A2… mentions in the help bubbles link here. Method updated on 8 October 2026.

Assumptions (A1 to A14)

  1. A1. Vehicle lifetime. Whichever comes first of 200,000 km or 18 years, close to the average scrappage age (Belgium 18.5 years, France 19.8). Cautious: the ICCT uses 20 years and 240,000 km (2025; 243,000 km in the 2021 edition), which would favour electric further. Current batteries last that long: fewer than 1% of cars sold since 2016 have needed a replacement. [1, 8, 14]
  2. A2. Manufacturing allocation: economic (consumed value). Manufacturing is shared between successive owners in proportion to the value of the car consumed while they own it, with 15%/yr depreciation (a little slower than real early-year depreciation). ISO 14044 (§4.3.4.2) provides for allocation by economic value when no physical relationship can split the burden; it is transposed here to successive owners. [10]
  3. A3. Buying new: marginal convention. By default, buying a new car triggers 100% of its manufacturing, even if sold on later: a consequential reading suited to an individual decision, and an upper bound compared with economic allocation. The attributional / consequential distinction follows Plevin et al. (2014). The comparison is limited to the electric car's remaining life. In “Compare cars”, the “shared between owners” option applies economic allocation (A2). [11]
  4. A4. Next owner. If sold, a next owner keeps driving the car at 12,000 km/yr (fleet average), assuming a liquid used market. Known limitation: real annual mileage declines with age, which slightly overstates the next owner's kilometres. [3, 8]
  5. A5. Electricity grids. Life-cycle intensities, consumption basis (imports included), 2024-2025, from Electricity Maps and Ember; values checked to within ±20%. France: 50 g, the ADEME 'average mix, consumption' value (51.9 g in 2024), more cautious than Electricity Maps' ≈ 32 g; RTE reports 19.6 g of direct generation emissions. [2, 4, 5, 6, 9]
  6. A6. Grid decarbonisation: country trajectories. Annual rates estimated from national energy and climate plans (NECPs) and 2024-2025 trends (France −1%/yr, Belgium −3%, Germany −4.5%, Poland −5.5%…). Those plans publish renewable shares, not g/kWh trajectories, so the rates are a sensitivity parameter you can switch off. Intensity is the mean of a geometric decline over the ownership period. [4, 13]
  7. A7. Fuels (well to wheel). E10 petrol: 2.69; B7 diesel: 3.10 kgCO₂e/L (ADEME Base Carbone: combustion + oil upstream; biogenic CO₂ from the bio share is not counted). The disputed indirect land-use change (ILUC) effects of biofuels are not counted. [6]
  8. A8. Battery. Medians of 62 (LFP) to 74 (NMC) kgCO₂e/kWh, up to over 100 depending on material origin [7]. Default: the EU sales-weighted average, 73 kgCO₂e/kWh. No end-of-life recycling credit is counted: a choice that disadvantages electric. [7, 8]
  9. A9. Manufacturing excluding the battery. Combustion car: 5.2 tCO₂e per tonne of vehicle (Ricardo 2020, used by the ICCT), i.e. 6.0 t for a city car and 11.4 t for a large SUV. The electric car without its battery is counted at +5%: a cautious choice, since Ricardo finds about −10% instead (no engine or exhaust). [8, 12]
  10. A10. Consumption. Real-world figures (ICCT 2025, on-board OBFCM meters), not WLTP type-approval cycles, which are about 20% optimistic for petrol and diesel and 25% for electric. Electric: kWh/100 km used by the car, plus 10% charging losses (low end of the 10 to 15% range). [8, 16]
  11. A11. Plug-in hybrid. Real share of electric driving: about 45 to 50% for private owners, 11 to 15% in company fleets (Plötz et al., ICCT / Fraunhofer ISI, 2022). On average, real-world plug-in hybrid emissions are 3.5 times their type-approval value (European Commission, 2024). [15, 16]
  12. A12. Outside the CO₂ scope. Maintenance (tyres included) is out of scope: the ICCT puts it at about 4 g/km, and the extra tyre wear from the electric car's weight is a fraction of that (under 2% of the total). It is mainly a particulate (air quality) issue; regenerative braking, on the other hand, reduces brake particulates. [8]
  13. A13. Uncertainty. Educational orders of magnitude, overall uncertainty of about ±20%. Over 200,000 km, this model puts electric at about −60% versus petrol on the EU average and −70% in France or Scandinavia. The ICCT (2025) finds −73% for the EU average, over 240,000 km and with a lighter electric glider: the model is deliberately cautious. On very carbon-intensive grids (Poland, India) and at low mileage, the advantage becomes thin. [8, 14]
  14. A14. Running-cost budget. Yearly cost of energy (household prices per country, home charging) and maintenance (ADAC monthly flat rates, converted to €/km: €0.07/km for an older combustion car, repairs included; €0.04/km for an electric car). The vehicle's purchase price, insurance, taxes and financing are not counted: they depend on each country's market and each purchase. Default prices dated and editable. [18, 19, 20]

Sources and references

  1. Carbone 4 (2022). Les idées reçues sur le véhicule électrique. carbone4.com. https://www.carbone4.com/files/359_publication_faq_vehicule_electrique.pdf
  2. RTE (2026). Bilan électrique 2025 — Émissions de gaz à effet de serre. https://analysesetdonnees.rte-france.com/bilan-electrique-2025/emissions 19.6 gCO₂e/kWh direct generation emissions (2025).
  3. SDES / CGDD (2025). Chiffres clés du climat — Édition 2025. https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/chiffres-cles-du-climat-france-europe-et-monde-edition-2025
  4. Ember (2025). Yearly Electricity Data & European Electricity Review. https://ember-energy.org/data/yearly-electricity-data/
  5. Electricity Maps (2025). Carbon intensity data (lifecycle), IPCC AR5 factors. https://www.electricitymaps.com/data/methodology
  6. ADEME (2025). Base Empreinte® / Base Carbone®. https://base-empreinte.ademe.fr/ Road fuels (E10 2.69; B7 3.10 kgCO₂e/L); French electricity, average consumption mix (51.9 g in 2024).
  7. Peiseler, L., Schenker, V., Schatzmann, K., Pfister, S., Wood, V. & Schmidt, T. (2024). “Carbon footprint distributions of lithium-ion batteries and their materials”. Nature Communications 15, 10301. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54634-y
  8. Negri, M. & Bieker, G. (2025). Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars in the European Union: A 2025 update and key factors to consider. ICCT. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/ID-392-%E2%80%93-Life-cycle-GHG_report_final.pdf Electric −73% versus petrol (63 versus 235 gCO₂e/km, EU average).
  9. IPCC (2014). AR5 WGIII, Annex III. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_annex-iii.pdf
  10. ISO 14044 (2006). Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — Requirements and guidelines, § allocation. https://www.iso.org/standard/38498.html
  11. Plevin, R., Delucchi, M. & Creutzig, F. (2014). “Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate-Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers”. Journal of Industrial Ecology 18(1), 73–83. doi:10.1111/jiec.12074
  12. Hill, N. et al. — Ricardo, ifeu, E4tech, for the European Commission (2020). Determining the environmental impacts of conventional and alternatively fuelled vehicles through LCA. doi:10.2834/91418
  13. IEA (2025). World Energy Outlook, STEPS scenario. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025 Country grid carbon-intensity trajectories.
  14. Bieker, G. (2021). A global comparison of the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of combustion engine and electric passenger cars. ICCT. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Global-Vehicle-LCA-White-Paper-A4-revised-v2.pdf
  15. Plötz, P. et al. (2022). Real-world usage of plug-in hybrid vehicles in Europe. ICCT / Fraunhofer ISI. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/real-world-phev-use-jun22-1.pdf
  16. European Commission (2024). Report on real-world CO₂ emissions of cars and vans based on on-board fuel consumption monitoring data, COM(2024) 122. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52024DC0122
  17. ADEME (2026). Impact CO₂ — comparateur des modes de transport. impactco2.fr, API v1, consulté le 07/10/2026. Licence Ouverte Etalab. https://impactco2.fr/ Data for the “Other ways to get around” tab, vehicle manufacturing included.
  18. European Commission (2026). Weekly Oil Bulletin, prices of 5 October 2026. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en
  19. Eurostat (2026). Electricity prices for household consumers (nrg_pc_204), 2025-S2, band DC. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_pc_204/default/table
  20. Morrison, K. & Wappelhorst, S. (2023). Are battery electric vehicles cost competitive? An income-based analysis for the German market. ICCT. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ICCT-Study-Cost-Ownership-BEV-Germany.pdf